Türkiye and Australia are asking governments at COP31 to commit to a new global electrification target of 35 percent by 2035. Can this target accelerate the renewable energy transition, or will it only serve to lock-in more fossil fuels?
The stakes for COP31 could not be higher. This year governments head to the annual summit in Antalya, Türkiye, facing the impacts of the largest energy supply crisis in history and ever worsening climate crisis. The economic and security risks of relying on fossil fuels exposed following the US/Israel war on Iran, compounding climate impacts from this year’s Super El Niño, and the reality that the world is now expected to overshoot the 1.5°C temperature goal, reinforce the urgency for COP31 to live up to the Presidencies’ promise of an “implementation COP.”
The flagship initiative of the COP31 Presidency presented by Türkiye to address the twin crises is a new global target on electrification. The proposed “35 by 35” target aims to increase global electricity’s share of final energy consumption to 35 percent by 2035, up from around 20 percent today. This ambition is welcome – electrification is one of the strongest tools we have available to accelerate the global energy transition, but only if that electrification is powered by renewables and accelerates the transition away from fossil fuels (TAFF). This is one of the seven essential guardrails civil society are calling on to anchor the electrification target.
IRENA modelling points to the scale of the challenge: to align with 1.5°C, increasing the global electrification rate to 35% by 2035 must be achieved with at least 78 percent of the electricity coming from renewables. At the same time, the IEA finds for electrification to deliver benefits and align with 1.5°C, coal-fired power must fall by around 70 percent, and gas-fired power by around 60 percent by 2035.
As it stands, the proposed global electrification target that governments are being encouraged to sign up to via a pledge at COP31, does not commit or encourage governments to deliver electrification with renewables and simultaneously displace fossil fuels. Without specifying the energy sources that will underpin the additional energy demand created by increased electrification, the global target risks becoming a trojan horse for governments and industry, including Big Tech, to justify their continued dependency on fossil fuels, locking us into increased emissions and worsening climate and energy insecurity.
Renewables-Based Electrification Is a Critical Driver of the Energy Transition Away From Fossil Fuels
Delivering on the 35-by-35 target with renewable energy (wind, solar, grids and storage) would be transformative for the energy transition, as well as bring wider economic and energy security benefits.
The electrification of “end-use sectors” e.g. vehicles, heating and cooling of buildings, and industrial processes, is recognised as a crucial step to reducing greenhouse gas emissions. When the electricity comes from solar and wind, not gas and coal, it reduces emissions, increases efficiency at the point of use compared to fossil-fuelled technologies, and expands the share of energy demand that can be met with renewable power, thus helping to accelerate economy-wide decarbonisation. Relying on new nuclear power, which takes more than ten years and massive public subsidies to be built, is incompatible with the 2035 target.
Electrification using renewable energy can also significantly expand energy access.
Electrification using renewable energy can also significantly expand energy access. With 730 million people still lacking access to electricity globally, electrification with renewables can deliver more affordable and reliable electricity systems, and strengthen the investment case for grids, mini-grids and distributed energy solutions.
The IEA has confirmed that getting the world to 35 percent electricity by 2035 is cost-effective, can cut household energy bills by 15 percent, reduce fuel import bills by over $400 billion a year, and slash CO₂ emissions from transport, buildings and industry by up to 40 percent. Crucially, they found that electrification delivers maximum economic and climate benefits when powered by clean energy, not fossil fuels.
COP31’s Call to Action on Electrification Is Missing the Words That Matter
The COP31 Presidency's proposed 35-by-35 global electrification pledge is too vague. The pledge calls for the target to be met with “diverse and sustainable energy sources.” In practice, this means that governments could pursue national electrification policies and plans, and be technically contributing to achieving the target, by shifting their reliance on fossil fuels from one part of the energy system to the other, and adding new energy demand from coal or gas-fired electricity.
This language has been significantly watered down since Türkiye first launched the initiative at Bonn in June. COP31 President-Designate, Murat Kurum, initially called for “a major acceleration in the shift from direct fossil fuel use to clean electricity across buildings, transport and industry.” Since then, neither Türkiye or Australia have shown leadership to ensure the proposed global target defines electrification to be delivered with renewables or clean electricity, nor have they made any efforts to ensure electrification must go hand in hand with TAFF. Without these crucial guardrails, the 35-by-35 target will not deliver on its promised economic, security and climate benefits, and risks accelerating rather than limiting climate change.
Electrification for Big Tech and Data Centres
Unchecked data centre expansion significantly increases the risk that the 35-by-35 target will be met with coal and gas-fired electricity, rather than renewables. Today, new data centres, propelled by Big Tech’s AI race, are one of the main drivers of the global expansion of fossil gas power generation in countries such as the UK, where more than 100 data centres plan to burn gas to generate electricity, and the US, where over 40% of electricity for datacentres is currently powered by gas. In the other largest data centre market, China, around 70% of data centre electricity today comes from coal. The IEA estimates fossil fuel-based electricity will be used to power around 40% of all datacentres globally by 2035.
Data centre expansion is only adding new demand and risks.
Even if powered by renewables, data centre expansion is only adding new demand and risks eating into the renewable electricity supply to critical industries, buildings and transport which should be on top of the decarbonisation agenda. Without robust regulation such as requiring data centres to bring their own new additional renewable energy, prioritising electrification of other sectors (e.g. households, transport, heavy industry), as well as requiring data centres to bear the whole cost of new power grid infrastructure, the data centre boom risks cannibalising energy from critical societal needs and fueling ever-increasing demand cycles.
We are already seeing datacentre expansion in Europe threaten electrification progress. In Denmark for example, Lidl could not electrify its fleet due to a lengthy grid queue with data centres making up the majority of requests. Denmark has introduced measures to deprioritise data centres for grid access. In Ireland and the Netherlands, both heavily congested data centre hubs, electrification of transportation has been stalled. In Spain, industries are asking the government to deprioritise data centres to ensure affordable clean energy for other key sectors like steel and chemicals. Meanwhile, shares of renewable energy in data centre-heavy regions like Ireland are stagnating, and electricity growth is putting pressure on even regions like Aragon in Spain with abundant wind and solar energy.
Translating Türkiye’s Global Ambition Into National Action
Global ambition surrounding the 35-by-35 target will also need to move beyond the COP stage and be translated by governments into tailored national roadmaps to deliver electrification with renewables, accelerate supporting infrastructure such as grids and storage, and support TAFF.
As the key champion of the global electrification target, Türkiye is expected to soon unveil a revision of its own National Energy Plan ahead of COP31. Türkiye currently has no plans to phase out fossil fuels, and is looking for new ways to diversify its imports and increase local exploration for oil and gas, while continuing to support local coal production, planning for new coal plants, and avoiding any discussion on a national coal phaseout plan.
This is therefore a key opportunity for Türkiye to show credible leadership on how to deliver electrification at home in the right way - with renewables, not fossil fuels. A critical first step to advance electrification in Türkiye would be to announce a just coal phase-out plan, as currently coal remains the leading source of electricity generation in Türkiye, and more than 60 percent of coal-fired electricity is produced using imported coal. At the same time, strengthening the grid and unlocking Türkiye’s untapped wind and solar potential must also be prioritised. Without a clear roadmap to exit coal, efforts to raise the electrification rate in Türkiye to 35 percent by 2035 will result in fossil fuel emissions and energy imports increasing to meet the rising electricity demand.
Action on Electrification Must Be Accompanied by Finance
Electrifying the world with renewables will also require an unprecedented investment in renewable energy generation, transmission networks, modernised grids, battery storage, and energy access. Governments, development banks, investors, utilities, philanthropies, and businesses must work together to turn COP31’s electrification ambitions and growing political support into finance partnerships that truly address country priorities and just transition needs.
Electrifying the world with renewables will also require an unprecedented investment.
The COP31 Presidency’s Climate Implementation Bridge offers to play this connecting role by linking country priorities and project pipelines with finance and on the ground implementation partners. Given its expected focus to be on advancing electrification in pilot countries, the Climate Implementation Bridge should prioritise unlocking financing for renewable energy, grids, storage and electricity infrastructure. Without enough finance to turn ambition into action, electrification risks becoming a target on paper rather than real change on the ground.
COP31’s Electrification Legacy
The choice to be made at COP31 is clear. Governments could leave Antalya having committed to implementing a 35 percent global electrification target powered with renewables, backed by credible finance, and recognised as part of an overall package to transition away from fossil fuels. This would meet the crisis moment we find ourselves in, support delivery of the existing COP28 energy goals, and accelerate wider global momentum for the clean energy transition.
Or, governments could use the 35-by-35 target to steer the global energy transition off course, legitimising the current and future actions of governments and Big Tech to electrify with fossil fuels, and locking in countries’ fossil-fuel dependence. The world is entering the “Age of Electricity”, so governments must seize the opportunity COP31 provides to ensure an electrified world delivers for people, communities and the climate, rather than the fossil fuel industry and Big Tech.
